GOAL SETTING USING POSSESSION ANALYSIS
In my past evaluation of basketball statistics, the most common statistic that I
would find as one that could best determine the formula for winning basketball
games was by determining efficiency on offense and defense by using possession
analysis. In this piece, I am going to explain what possession analysis
is, determining positive and negative possessions, how you can create more
positive possessions for your team and create more negative possessions for your
opponents, and how you can use possession analysis to set some goals.
Possession Analysis
Dean Smith is the coach who is most famously associated with possession
analysis. His formula in his book Basketball: Multiple Offense and
Defense explained in detail his methods. The formula is presented in
two parts: scoring and possessions.
The scoring portion of the formula is determined based on made shots. In
today's basketball, this would include the points that come off of made
three-point shots, made two-point shots and made free throws. Totaling up
these points gives the scoring portion of the formula.
The possession portion of the formula is determined by three factors: turnovers,
field goals attempted and trips to the free throw line. Adding up these
three parts (free throw trips have to be counted as actual trips to the line,
not as free throw attempts), will give you the possessions.
Positive Possessions versus Negative Possessions
When differentiating between positive possessions and negative possessions, we
are making distinctions between possessions based on their outcomes.
Positive possessions are those that end with a scoring opportunity while
negative possessions are those that end without a scoring opportunity.
Positive possessions would be constituted by field goal attempts and trips to
the free throw line being added together. In each of these circumstances,
positive possessions result in scoring opportunities and (hopefully) points on
the scoreboard. Meanwhile, negative possessions are times when the offense
had the ball, but was unable to get a scoring opportunity.
The ideal ratio of positive possessions to negative possessions on offense is
seven to one while the ideal ratio on defense is that of one to four. For
example, in an 80-possession basketball game, we would like to have at least 70
positive possessions and only 10 negative possessions on offense while we would
like to hold our opponents to 64 positive possessions and 16 negative
possessions. As you can see, having six more positive possessions can
result potentially in outscoring our opponent anywhere from six to 18 points.
Ideas for Creating More Positive Possessions on Offense and More Negative
Possessions on Defense
So how do you go about creating more positive possessions on offense and
creating more negative possessions for your opponents on the defensive end?
There are several ideas that I will present to you that will help as a guide to
improve your team's possession efficiency as you go through the season.
Use this as a basis and you will improve your team offense and your team
defense.
The first thing you need to do on offense and defense is to play at a tempo that
suits you best. While it would be ideal to be able to play at either a
slower pace or to play at a faster pace, the best thing to do is to control the
speed of the game to a style of game that suits your team best. Whatever
that speed is, you need to work at that speed every day in practice and
eliminate mistakes made by playing too fast or making bad decisions to force the
tempo of the game when its running too slow for your team's liking.
After you have the tempo you want, the first thing you should do on offense is
to honor the post. By that, I mean that you need to look to get the ball
inside when the opportunity presents itself. When I was in college, I
found that you could increase your offensive efficiency by nearly 40 percent
just be getting the ball into the post either on the pass or on the dribble.
You also had a better chance to eliminate all of the negative possessions and
turn several missed shots into makes all by getting the ball in the post area.
By the same token, if the defense can keep the ball out of the post, it can
create more negative possessions for the offense and create more non-scoring
possessions as well.
When getting the ball into the post is difficult on offense, the next best thing
that you can do is to swing the ball from one side to the other. Reversing
the basketball is the next best option to getting the ball into the post.
The defense has to work and go from ball-side to help-side and back again when a
team can easily reverse the ball from side to side. Making the defense
work harder than it wants to allows for more breakdowns and scoring.
Meanwhile, the defense benefits when you don't allow ball reversal by not having
to work as hard. Your help-side defense can stay in help for the entire
length of the possession and you can keep the offense on one side of the floor
and force mistakes either by forcing a reversal or by taking a bad shot.
If you can limit your opponent to one side of the floor, your efficiency on
defense improves and their offensive efficiency decreases.
Getting rebounds is another way that you can create more positive possessions on
offense. There is no way to create more negative possessions on defense,
but you can get rebounds on the offensive end of the floor to create more
possessions for your offense. If you have more possessions, you have a
better chance of scoring and rebounding well on offense and this allows you to take
advantage of this important opportunity.
If you want to increase positive possessions, you need to find ways to take
better care of the basketball. Likewise, you will also need to find a way
to force turnovers on defense. When you watch a game on television, many
commentators talk about "empty possessions". This is what they mean.
When you have a possession on offense that ends in a turnover before you get a
shot off, your team just had one of these possessions. On offense, you
need shots and trips to the foul line, not turnovers.
The final thing that you can do is to increase the basketball intelligence of
your players. Smart players have the ability to make good, sound plays
when it matters most. Smart players are those who know how to rebound,
what shots they should take, how to get fouled and get to the free throw line
and not turn the basketball over to the other team. Smart players also
know how to play defense in such a way that they can force non-scoring
possessions when put in a position where they have to do so.
Goal Setting Using Possession Analysis
There is not a set number as far as efficiency is concerned, but the team that
usually has the better efficiency typically wins. Using these methods to
increase your efficiency on offense and decrease your opponent's efficiency on
defense will go a long way to helping your team win more games.
As for a goal, your goal should be to score more than one point per possession
on offense and to hold your opponent to under one point per possession on
defense. If you take this approach on a possession-by-possession basis,
you will find that a successful possession on defense is to not allow your
opponent to score and to score two or three points each possession on offense.
Clearly, this is the ideal approach to being a successful and efficient
basketball team.
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